Trade of the day – Mon, 22 Nov

Post match roundup

The TOTD model is under siege at the moment as we struggle to end this muddling non-winning streak.

For newer members particularly November results have not inspired confidence. It is by far our worst run since we started in Sept 2009. It is difficult – but important – to see the longer term picture. Older members will understand this more readily.

I would like to dissect last night`s TOTD.
I said it was a higher than usual risk trade  as stakes were weighted firmly towards the HT/FT bet.
However, certain insurance measures were set up, notably if the dog scored first.
We had big green on 1-1 & 1-2 which we would lay should it be 0-1 at HT. Odds on both
were 4.8 & 7.6 to lay respectively when  score was 0-1 in the first half.

Then Betfair suffered technical problems and the match was frozen for a crucial 20 mins during which time Zaragoza, still leading 0-1 had a man sent off. The red card as per usual sent the odds into freefall and the suspension sign left us powerless to make that vital lay.

I say powerless but there was one step to rescue our position and that was to make our lay bets on Betdaq. A lesson here could be that we should have back up bookie/betting exchange accounts.
Mr Tree pointed out, however, that every other Betfair trader caught frozen by BF`s IT issues thought of the same idea, namely, switch the trade over to Betdaq. Liquidity very quickly was hoovered out of the market.

Sod`s law that Getafe not Sunderland was the official TOTD. The proposed reverse AA + 2-2 yielded this author £25 profit for a £63 outlay…..just covering the official TOTD loss of £26

GETAFE v ZARAGOZA  20.00pm

Although Zaragoza have a good record v Getafe (2 wins to nil + a draw in last 3 H2H)
their form this season with only one victory makes us side with the home fav here.
Zaragoza have scored only 2 goals and have conceded 13 in the first half of all league games

BACK GETAFE/GETAFE
BACK 0-0
BACK 1-1
BACK 1-2

Unofficial TOTD

SUNDERLAND v EVERTON  20.00pm

Trappy one to call this. Everton`s record v Sunderland is impressive yet
the Wearsiders are in orbit following their demolition of Chelsea last weekend

With favourable odds on 1-2 & 2-1 a reverse AA + 2-2 could be the call here
A 50% of stakes insurance on Under2.5 is an option

___________________________________________________________________

~ by latraderette on November 22, 2010.

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