Trade of the day Wed 8 Dec

Post match roundup

Those of you in the chat room last night would have – should have – noticed one key thing during the Marseille/Chelsea trade. I, Bingo, became emotional! The two clear penalties that were not given plus a disallowed OM goal had me seething with the injustice of it all. I felt persecuted, cheated even, and consequently I allowed myself to become emotional. This led to wholly untrader like reactions…”there has to be a goal here, surely”…..”just one will do, even in the 2nd half”…..When this kind of thinking sets in, your trading discipline becomes ragged, fuzzy. I took my eye off the ball (not unlike quite a few of the Chelsea players come to think of it!) and failed to react in a way that was required. At HT with the score 0-0 we should have exited the trade for about a £17 loss. I offered 3 options which, with colder analysis this morning, was wrong. I excluded the 4th option – let`s pray! Although I escaped personally from serious damage by laying the draw @ 2.0 for £35 (final score was 1-0) this play was not given as an instruction. Herein lies the dilemma for controllers of a trade. Do we ask the troops to increase their existing liabilities at certain junctures in the game? The jury is still out on this question.

Another – more subjective – point concerns the match selection itself. With Chelsea & Marseille already guaranteed qualification did either side having anything to play for? Did this fact make the right call on the game harder to find? When selecting games to trade there are inumerable criteria to consider most of which can mutually cancel each other out. This being the case, Adster & I generally choose strategies that include a varying level of insurance to counteract our prematch subjective reasoning. The OM trade could arguably have been offered as straight CoverS with some low scores selected as insurance against the main Over 2.5 bet. I was convinced that both teams – Chelsea in particular – would play with a greater display of panache and quality than they actually did. We all make wrong calls on trades but the essential trick to implement is exiting at the right time. Learn this and you won`t go far wrong.

Better news was the Bayern trade where £10 was comfortably made by the application of sound trading principles; covering the danger scorelines, reducing your red, accepting a small profit instead of being greedy. Bravo Adster for showing us how it should be done.

MARSEILLE v  CHELSEA  19.45pm

Although both teams are assured of CL group qualification I would be surprised
if Ancelotti won`t use this no pressure game to get back to the style and authority
of his team`s early season form. Marseille were poor against Nice on Sunday but
would like to impress their fanatical support with a better performance against
one of Europe`s leading clubs.

Trade

BACK OVER 2.5
BACK 1-1

BACK DROGBA TO SCORE .…..whatever  stakes you fancy….against his former club

B Munich v Basel 19.45pm

Whilst Munich qualified in top place Basel need a result to try and get 2nd spot ahead of Roma. Basel win and Roma lose then Basel go through, simple as that. Munich have stated they will still go for the 3 points so we should see goals as the market agrees with us. So let’s try a CunderS but loading the profit on over 2.5 goals………

Back Under 2.5

Back 2-1
Back 2-2
Back 3-0
Back 3-1
Back auq

Good luck, both games be traded in Vets Room with bingo on Chelsea and myself on Munich games.

~ by Juan on December 8, 2010.

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