Revision, revision, revision

When we think about revision the first thing that comes to mind is a student slaving away for an upcoming exam. As traders we should always be studying as there is always something worth learning. But, in this instance, we are referring to the idea of revising strategies.

A few years ago you could lay the draw at 4’s, watch the home side score in the 25th minute and the draw price would shoot out to 7’s. These days the same scenario might see the draw price wearily climb to 5.5. At tradingfootball.eu we have a strategy for trading the 2-1 scoreline. We used to be able to say take nothing less than 10’s when using this strategy.The parameters for this trade now find games where the 2-1 price is 10’s if you’re very lucky. The markets, which pretty much means other traders, are getting smarter. So much more data is available to give a much more informed opinion, there is very little room for real profit in the bread and butter strategies that football trading was built on.

This author was a great advocate of laying the draw but the reduction in value has meant having to trade a lot more aggressively, which borders on gambling. This morning I am experimenting with a new strategy the potentially offers the same level of profit that we used to take from laying the draw, plus, it potentially has a better covering aspect than simply backing the draw at 2’s. Both games have just restarted, one is going the right way, the other has… I was about to write the other had moved into cover territory but a goal has been scored putting it back in the green. Love this game sometimes.

Revising strategies to find new and/or improved angles has to be worthwhile. One of our members devised a very successful strategy with an incredible strike rate. Despite its massive success, this week, that member made a small tweak which has given an additional 15 minutes of trading time and still delivers the same amount of profit when it hits, which it invariably does.

Whatever your bread and butter trades might be, keep evolving them. You can be sure the trader on the other side of your strategy is evolving his.

Stay green.

 

~ by latraderette on June 11, 2011.

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