Further to Tuesday’s post about not following instincts. Whilst going over yesterday’s card, this trader took some time over the Norway v Equatorial Guinea game in the women’s World Cup. Norway were priced at 1.03 to back. There aren’t many stats available for EG as they are very new to the world stage but those that were available did suggest they might give a decent account of themselves. After a few moments deliberating, based solely on the Norwegian price, the game was dismissed.

Uncharacteristically late to my desk, I turned on the TV to find EG were holding Norway at 0-0 with 60 minutes on the clock. This author has a trading strategy named after him that would have been very lucrative if implemented for this game. Simply laying Norway and backing them in the Correct Score market would, at the very worst, seen a free trade. Norway grabbed a winner in the 85th minute and I spent the next half hour wondering why, once again, I had failed to take my own advice.

If the stats and your instincts say the same thing, trade it. You will be wrong sometimes but we trade with insurance and as long our strike rate is over 50% we can’t lose.

Stay green.

~ by latraderette on June 30, 2011.

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